Beto O’Rourke Leading The 2020 Dem Presidential Sweepstakes

Beto O’Rourke

As was expected, the Dem presidential nomination fight began in earnest the day after the November 2018 elections with several Democrats either outrightly declaring their intention to run for president in 2020 or strongly hinting at that.

Several months prior to the November 2018 elections, Yours Truly began running the popular #Dem2020Poll to gauge who grassroots Democrats favored as their presidential nominee in 2020. The results of the #Dem2020Poll initially showed Senator Kamala Harris(D-CA) and Rep Joe Kennedy III as the top contenders for the 2020 Dem presidential nomination with more people favoring a Harris/Kennedy ticket.

However in May 2018, following speculation that former Vice President Joe Biden was considering a presidential run, he immediately shot to the top of the #Dem2020Poll with most people preferring a Biden/Harris ticket.

In September 2018 Sen Kamala Harris shot back to the top of the Dem 2020 presidential sweepstakes due to the Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings.

Well it appears everything has changed after the November 2018 elections and grassroots Democrats now overwhelmingly want Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke to either head the 2020 presidential ticket or be someone’s running mate.

At this juncture it is also important to address the Bernie Sanders issue. Yours Truly has deliberately left him out in previous #Dem2020Polls because he is not a registered Democrat. This issue has caused a lot of controversy and division among grassroots Dems so for the sake of party cohesion, Bernie Sanders now features in all the polls. Beyond the party cohesion argument, reasonable people will agree that a #Dem2020Poll without Bernie Sanders is not realistic/credible because like him or not, he has a lot of support among registered Democrats.

Bottom line 2020 is still very far away and a lot of twists and turns are bound to take place. As Trump himself regularly says, “We’ll see what happens.”

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Ted Cruz The Ultimate Trump Referendum

Yours Truly has stated for months, even when it seemed a ridiculous idea that thanks to the disastrous Trump admin, Dems could pick up Sen Ted Cruz’s seat and that they should fight tooth and nail for it.

Luckily Dems have done just that and per the latest poll, it appears Dem challenger Beto O’Rourke is within 5 points of points Ted Cruz.

Remember back in January, Sen Ted Cruz was said to be up by as much as 18 points

Any reasonable person presented with these set of facts–that a prominent Republican senator whose lead in the polls has shrunk from 18 to 5 points with roughly 4 months left before the elections would conclude that TeamCruz is in trouble, and it appears TeamCruz has done just that–gone into panic mode. Things have gotten so desperate for Sen Ted Cruz who thought he would just fly under the radar and coast to victory, that he is now demanding five debates with Beto O’Rourke.

Of course TeamCruz is banking on the fact that he is an excellent debater. They figure he will crush Beto on the debate stage and thus kill his momentum. Yours Truly readily admits that under normal circumstances Cruz would probably out-debate Beto on any day, but given the myriad scandals surrounding the Trump admin, these proposed 5 debates should be Beto’s strongest weapon–his perfect opportunity to seal the deal.

Beto’s debate strategy should be very simple–make Cruz synonymous with the Trump admin because he has stood idly by and even supported a lot of Trump’s actions that will never fly with Texas independents, a sizable voting block. Why for example has Cruz stood idly by as Trump continues to hide his tax returns? Texas is big on government transparency–open records laws. Why has Cruz stood idly by as Trump attacks the media or the Justice department? Why does Cruz, a so-called fiscal conservative who opposed the 2008 TARP bailout now support Trump’s bailout of rural farmers who are hurting because of Trump’s unnecessary tarrifs? Why isn’t Cruz more vocal about the plight of innocent migrant children ripped away from their parents as a result of Trump admin’s inhumane Zero Tolerance policy? You get the drift folks, serious questions abound and given the disastrous Trump admin, the debates strongly favor Beto or any other Dem hopeful nationwide for that matter. The only question left is how effectively Beto can tie Cruz to Trump–make his race against Cruz a referendum on the Trump admin.

Bottom line Beto O’Rourke can seal the deal with the proposed 5 debates if he not only makes his senate race a referendum on the Trump admin but also tie Sen Ted Cruz to it. If he does that, he wins the sizable Texas independents and thus the coveted U.S. Senate seat–like Yours Truly has predicted all along.

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Harris County Key To Lupe Valdez Beto O’Rouke Wins

In Texas statewide elections, Republicans do well in the relatively small rural counties while their Democratic counterparts dominate the larger urban counties–Harris, Dallas, Travis County(Austin) etc. This is such an entrenched political phenomenon in Texas that seasoned politicos have dubbed it–“Its the metroplexes stupid!!”.  The phenomenon featured heavily in the 2016 presidential election where Trump dominated the rural Texas counties while Hillary Clinton posted huge numbers in the metroplexes, especially Harris County. Simply put, any statewide candidate that wins big in Harris, Dallas and Travis Counties inevitably wins the election.

It therefore goes without saying that Dem hopefuls Lupe Valdez (for Texas Governor) and Beto O’Rourke (for U.S. Senate) will have to contend with the “Its the metroplexes stupid!” hurdle. There is no question that Valdez’s and O’Rourke’s candidacies are crucial to the national Democratic Party not only because of the internal morale boost such wins will inevitably provide, but more importantly because of the aftershocks their wins may inflict on the Republican party. Simply put, if Dem Lupe Valdez is elected Texas Governor and Beto O’Rourke U.S. Senator from Texas, expect the GOP’s blind faith in President Trump to come to an abrupt end. There will be a lot of Republicans looking for a Trump alternative–an indirect win for the Dems

So how do Dems Lupe Valdez and Beto O’Rourke post huge numbers in Harris County? The reflexive answer is of course bringing out the vote—voter turnout. Turnout is obviously key to Dems winning. Yours Truly however suggests/highly recommends that this time in addition to seeking high voter turnout, the Dem candidates also focus heavily on voting machine security. After the Russian election interference in 2016, not doing so would amount to “campaign malpractice”. As Yours Truly pointed out in a previous post, Texas has somehow packed unverifiable voting machines in Dem strongholds. The biggest Dem stronghold is the populous Harris County where Obama posted huge numbers both in 2008 and 2012. Hillary Clinton also posted huge numbers in Harris County in 2016 beating Trump 54-41%(706,000 to 544000 votes). Big numbers in Harris County will be crucial to Lupe Valdez and Beto O’Rourke if they are to win statewide so the kind of voting machines used in Harris County must be of primary concern to their campaigns

According to the Harris County Clerk’s website, the county uses electronic (totally paperless) e-slate  voting machines for county-wide voting. The County Clerk’s website has a picture of the e-slate machines and even a demo on how they are supposed to work.(give it a test run please)

Well it turns out that in 2017 Dan S. Wallach,  a Computer  Science Professor at Houston’s Rice University (an Ivy League school) wrote a piece in the Houston Chronicle attacking Harris County’s e-slate machines as easily hackable. That drew sharp responses from sitting Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart who defended the e-slate voting machines as hacker proof. The interesting back and forth between the Rice University Professor and the Harris County Clerk are all recorded in this MUST READ Houston Chronicle article. Yours Truly is not a Computer Science expert and therefore will not attempt to weigh in on the merits/demerits of the technical back and forth arguments between Professor Wallach and County Clerk Stanart, both of whom have extensive Computer Science/technology backgrounds. Instead Yours Truly will direct your attention to a revelation in the article that way back in 2011, way before TrumpRussia, Tarrant County Clerk Dana Debeauvoir(a Democrat) asked Professor Wallach to design a safe voting machine to replace e-slates which many considered unsafe and unreliable.

The article points out that Prof Wallach did indeed come up with STAR-Vote which apparently is not only much safer than e-slate machines in that it provides a paper trail, it is also cheaper. According to the article, Travis County was very receptive to STAR-Vote and immediately began taking steps to transition from e-slates. In stark contrast Republican County Clerk Stan Stanart of Harris County(according to article) was very dismissive of STAR-Vote and appears intent on using e-slate machines in Harris County even with the threat of Russian hacking. Yours Truly found County Clerk Stanart’s hostility towards STAR-Vote, a safer and cheaper alternative to e-slate machines very strange and will definitely inquire further as to why. Why would the Harris County Clerk vouch for unsafe and costlier e-slate voting machines? Folks these are questions TeamLupe and TeamBeto and the DNC for that matter need to start asking—fast!!

Rest assured folks that your Pulitzer-deserving Citizen Journalist will reignite this clash between Computer Scientist Wallach and Harris County Clerk Stanart so that Harris County voters are fully informed about the highly suspect e-slate machines before they head out to vote this November. Folks these are the issues the Mainstream Media should be focussed on ahead of Midterms 2018. Instead we’re inundated with Samantha Bee’s “c*unt” talk.

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