Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Was Totally Predictable

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An interesting segment on CNN’s Outfront w/ErinBurnett(03/16/23 )revealed that five months ago, renowned Economist Douglas Diamond, who won a Nobel Prize for his research in bank runs, predicted, even warned, that banks would go under if the federal reserve kept raising interest rates. This of course means that the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank(SVB), and the ripple effect it has caused around the banking world, were totally foreseeable. Host Erin Burnett rightly wondered why nobody at the fed heeded warnings from this esteemed economist known for his work on bank runs?

Douglas Diamond specifically told host Erin Burnett when asked whether he was surprised by the collapse of SVB(1:21): “I’m actually quite surprised. I realized that they[interest rate hikes]could wreak havoc, and I assumed that the supervisors–the Fed, FDIC, control of the currency–would have carefully looked at the balance sheets of all these banks and made sure that they would have been resilient, could have made it through this huge interest rate increase. So clearly from the Silicon Valley National Bank and First Republic, it’s pretty much the interest rate increases that caused their problems, so I’m surprised that we got here, and I would have thought that either the Fed would have slowed interest rate increases a bit, or even better, made sure these banks were stable so they could increase them to fight inflation.”

More importantly, Douglas Diamond pointed out that this was not a problem caused by lack of adequate banking regulations, but rather, just a failure of supervision. He specifically told host Erin Burnett(3:30): “Within the existing laws, the supervisors and regulators could have done a thousand times better.”

Bottom line folks, the collapse of SVB and its ripple effects, were totally foreseeable. The Biden administration is justified in extending generous bailouts to affected banks in an effort to prevent a “contagion” from SVB. Reasonable people can reasonably disagree about the wisdom of extending generous bailouts to struggling banks who made bad financial decisions. What we must not disagree about however, is that the supervisors and regulators, whose job it was to prevent this totally foreseeable crisis, must be held to account–beginning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

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ECB President Christine Lagarde Blames Less Focus On Job Retention During COVID For High U.S. Inflation

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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde appeared for an interview on CBS’ Face The Nation(04/24/22) to discuss the current global inflation brought about by covid and the Russsia-Ukraine war. During her interview, President Lagarde made an interesting observation, telling host Margaret Brennan that inflation is higher in the U.S. because unlike Europe, the U.S. focused more on issuing covid stimulus/relief checks than on job retention. Europe’s primary focus during covid was on job retention. She said the resultant labor shortage in the U.S. is driving up wages, which are in turn, driving up costs. Hmm, interesting.

Host Margaret Brennan(video at 4:53):“In this country there’s a lot of debate around how much the government is to blame versus the central bankers for the inflation that we are experiencing. The U.S. spent $6 trillion on covid relief, $2 trillion of it on President Biden’s watch last Spring when the economy was already recovering. Do you think some of this spending in the U.S. exacerbated inflation, because Europe didn’t spend like this?”

President Lagarde:“We in Europe spent less in stimulus, and I think we spent differently. We spent pretty much half as much as what the U.S. government spent on stimulus, and heating up the economy. But we also spent differently because I think the focus was predominantly on keeping the jobs, not necessarily sending the checks, and as a result of that, people who managed to keep their jobs alive, while not necessarily going to work because covid stopped everybody from going to work at some point in time, they had their job. So when covid was over, they went back to their job. So, I think that the labor market that you have currently in the U.S., which is incredibly tense, where you have a lot of jobs that are not filled, where you have plenty of vacancies, we don’t have that in Europe at the moment, and the current situation you have on the labor market here in the U.S. is clearly contributing to possible strong inflation and second round effect, where prices go up, wages go up, short supply of labor, wages continue to go up, and that feeds back into prices. That’s one of the differences between our two economies.”

There’s no other way to interpret ECB President Lagarde’s remarks other than(I’ll be happy to stand corrected of course), the current strong inflation in the U.S. is largely driven by the fact that the government did not do enough to help people keep their jobs during covid. In other words, even though a lot of people could not physically go to work during covid, more should have been done to make sure their jobs would still be there for them after the pandemic–propping up their employers to keep them afloat. According to President Lagarde, this is precisely what Europe focused on–propping up the employers, and is the reason Europe is not seeing the high levels of inflation as the U.S.

For the record, this does not mean Europe did not hand out covid stimulus/relief checks to workers like the U.S. did. What President Lagarde is saying is that the primary focus in Europe was job retention. It’s also worth pointing out for the sake of fairness, that the entire U.S. covid response, and the resultant high inflation, cannot be pinned solely on the Biden administration. Reasonable people will agree that the Trump admin is equally to blame.

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